A recent poll of French voters shows floundering levels of faith in democracy. The majority of the French public lay the blame squarely at the feet of President Macron and his government, who they reproach for having consistently undermined democratic rules and conventions for the past three years. Such a pronounced disdain for the establishment might prove to be fertile ground for the far right in the leadup to elections in 2027.
At the turn of the year, voters in France were asked to measure their confidence in politics. In 2024, they had just lived through what was, even by French standards, one of the most politically chaotic years in recent memory. Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and trigger legislative elections was a disastrous move that resulted in many months of legislative gridlock.
An island of pessimism
The French public paints a gloomy picture of their domestic politics: 74% of respondents state that they do not have confidence in politics; 71% believe that democracy is functioning poorly; 78% classify the political situation that followed Macron’s 2024 decision as ‘fairly to very bad’. It’s particularly concerning that 45% believe that the country’s fortunes cannot be changed through elections, and 73% that a ‘real leader is needed to restore power’.
There have been significant political troubles in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, a selection of whose citizens also took part in this survey, yet the French public are considerably more pessimistic towards their political system than their neighbours. It’s deeper than just a pushback against a string of political mistakes and scandals – French voters are voicing a fundamental dissatisfaction with the manner in which Macron and his governments have ruled the country since his re-election in 2022.
Undermining democracy
Three numbers, 49.3, symbolise the troubles plaguing French politics in recent years. Article 49, Section 3 of the French constitution gives the government the power to force a bill through the legislature without the need for a vote. While the legislature can reply by invoking a vote of no confidence, the absolute majority required means that governments are rarely toppled and laws usually pass without a vote.
Since its inscription in the Fifth Republic’s new constitution in 1958, Article 49.3 has been used only sporadically. Then in 2022 Macron was re-elected as president without a majority in the legislature. Instead of opting for a parliamentary approach of compromise and coalitions, he pushed forward with a strategy that has involved using and abusing several constitutional loopholes in ways that previous leaders had refrained from. And for good reason: politicians might see Article 49.3 as another tool for governing, but to the public such a political manoeuvre is a blatant undermining of democracy. While not technically unconstitutional, the actions of successive governments since 2022 are no less anti-democratic in the eyes of the voter, and have eroded levels of public trust for the traditional political establishment and their representatives.
A president in peril
Of those surveyed, 56% judge that Macron is the primary reason for the current political situation. Frankly, based on the general public feeling towards Macron, this seems lower than expected. Not only did he call needless legislative elections at the precise moment that the far-right had just notched up a record success in the European elections, he repeatedly ignored the results of those legislative elections by picking two prime ministers from neither of the two parties that topped the results. So is it really a surprise that 68% of the respondents now view the current government as illegitimate?
By repeatedly breaking the unwritten rules of the French democratic system, Macron has played a dangerous political game that has dashed the confidence placed in him and now renders his decisions illegitimate in the eyes of the public. Furthermore, Macron might be setting a precedent that will be hard to reverse in the future: the instant recourse to the democratically dubious Article 49.3 whenever a government is lacking a legislative majority, and the banalisation of the ensuing legislative gridlock.
Fertile ground for the far right?
The poll goes some way towards quantifying the malaise that has been permeating France for years. There has been a steady erosion of faith in the president and the democratic system. People no longer believe that their grievances are adequately addressed by their representatives; 74% of respondents consider elected representatives to be corrupt.
This worrying trend will lead thousands into the welcoming arms of the far right, poised to offer a soothing populist balm: a party for the people rallying against the elite political establishment that has forgotten the people. A well-worn strapline of populists worldwide, but is it really such an inaccurate depiction of Macron’s France? That this question even arises highlights the errors of Macron and his governments since 2022.
By abandoning a sense of le fair-play in French democratic affairs, Macron has fed the flames of discontent among a public that already felt alienated and neglected by the “establishment”, and accelerated the desertion of voters from the traditional parties to the political extremes. The far right, who are successfully cleaning up their image and becoming more palatable to the French public at the same time as the far left are losing credibility, will be especially well poised to hoover up vast swathes of disgruntled and alienated French voters at the next election, putting the far-right closer than ever to the presidency.
How high must you be in the polls before you are above the law?
And of course, the court’s decision on Monday to bar Marine Le Pen from running for office for the next five years will feed the indignation-fuelled campaign message of the Rassemblement National (RN) even further. The ruling may have been completely justified by the law, and accompanied by a 150-page document of legal justifications, yet Le Pen and the far right have already called for demonstrations to protest a ‘political decision’ by a ‘biased’ judge who has ‘killed French democracy’.
Le Pen may overturn her conviction in time for a presidential run. If not, her understudy Jordan Bardella, who by some estimates is more popular than Le Pen, may launch the RN’s presidential ticket. Either way, the far right have been given even more ammunition to claim that the rigged system is yet again using undemocratic methods to rob the people of their voice. It may be difficult for Le Pen and Bardella to maintain until 2027 their message of an establishment hell-bent on keeping the RN from power, even if it means subverting the rule of law and the will of the people. And although the far right might gain politically in the short term from this legal development, only time will tell if they can really survive their charismatic and battle-hardened leader being struck from the ballot-box come 2027.
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